by Conrad Meertins | Jan 15, 2024 | Market Trends
Imagine uncovering a secret blueprint that could transform your approach to real estate. This blueprint merges Stephen Covey’s timeless wisdom from “Seven Habits of Highly Effective People” with the dynamic realm of real estate transactions. The focus here is on the second habit, “Begin with the End in Mind,” a principle I believe is key to navigating the ever-evolving real estate market.
In the following sections, we’ll explore recent Louisville, KY real estate trends and uncover often-overlooked insights.
As we do, we can apply the ‘Begin With the End in Mind’ approach to our 2024 Real Estate Strategy. This isn’t just about goal setting—it’s about using market analytics to guide our decisions in real estate.
Let’s dive into how this forward-thinking principle can sharpen our competitive edge.
Q1 Insights: Setting the Stage for Annual Market Trends
Let’s examine the market trends reflected in the quarterly median sale prices from 2021 to 2023 in Louisville, KY. Despite a reduction in the number of homes sold, which isn’t shown on this graph, there’s a clear upward trend in the prices that buyers have been willing to pay.
Starting each year with a glance at Q1, we can observe that 2023 opened with home prices that were higher than at the beginning of 2022, which also had surpassed 2021’s figures. This consistent rise in initial prices year over year is a positive indicator of growing market strength.
However, looking at the year’s end, we notice a slight deviation from this trend. While the closing prices of 2022 improved upon 2021, the same cannot be said for the transition from 2022 to 2023.
Although the prices didn’t climb higher at the end of 2023, they didn’t fall either, maintaining the gains from earlier in the year. This stability, rather than a decline, suggests that the market is holding its value well, which is reassuring for both current and prospective homeowners.
The Closing Quarter: Reflecting on Market Resilience
Consistency is key in the real estate market, and the trends in Jefferson County, KY, reaffirm this saying. If we take a closer look at how property prices have behaved at the start and end of each year from 2021 to 2023, we find an encouraging pattern.
Despite the expected seasonal dip towards the end of the year, the big picture is one of growth. Specifically, the comparison between Q1 and Q4 within the same year shows us that regardless of the short-term fluctuations, the overall value of homes has been on an upward trajectory.
For instance, in Louisville, KY as a whole, the opening quarter’s median sale prices have consistently been lower than those at the year’s close. This tells us that homeowners who hold onto their properties throughout the year could see a natural increase in their homes’ market value.
It’s a reassuring sign for long-term investors and a helpful metric for potential sellers planning the right time to enter the market. This trend highlights the resilience of the local real estate market.
It also demonstrates that even with the anticipated year-end slowdown, property values in Louisville, have maintained a positive momentum.
New Year’s Market Outlook: Beyond the Initial Dip
As we turn the calendar page each year, we see a recurring theme in the housing market. The beginning of the year often starts with a modest reset in home prices from their previous year-end highs.
This dip, however, is just a small chapter in an overall success story, as the trend line since 2021 is pointing upwards. This pattern means that while home values might momentarily soften as the New Year chimes in, they generally pick up steam as the months roll by, pushing the market value higher as the year progresses.
This trend is crucial for both buyers and sellers to keep in mind. If you’re considering selling your home and you’ve recently seen a property similar to yours sell at a peak price, it’s important to temper expectations.
A home appraisal report may well contain a valuation adjustment in line with the current market phase, particularly if there’s been a recent cooling. It’s a reminder to always be attuned to the rhythm of the market and to set your strategies accordingly.
Why Pay Attention to These Trends?
In the spirit of Stephen Covey’s second habit, “Begin with the End in Mind,” we turned our focus to the critical importance of market trends in the real estate landscape.
It’s not just a matter of peering through the data; it’s about understanding the narrative behind the numbers. This is where the essence of strategic foresight in real estate comes to life.
Paying close attention to the highs and lows of the market allows us to navigate with precision and purpose, ensuring that each step taken is a deliberate stride towards our ultimate objectives.
Maximizing Returns:
Just as a captain charts a course by the stars, real estate market trends serve as our celestial guides, helping us navigate towards maximum profitability.
Recognizing the right time to list or purchase can make all the difference in the financial outcome of a real estate transaction. In Louisville, KY, for example, the upward trend in home prices, even amidst seasonal fluctuations, indicates a potential for sellers to maximize returns by timing the market judiciously.
Identifying Growth Opportunities:
By observing the shifts and preferences in the housing market, we identify not just current demands but forecast emerging trends that signal growth opportunities.
Understanding Market Shifts:
The real estate market is as dynamic as the seasons, changing in response to a multitude of economic and societal factors.
Having a keen eye on these changes allows us to predict and prepare for the natural cycles of the market. It’s about reading the signs and knowing when to act. This understanding empowers us to make informed decisions that resonate with confidence and clarity, much like the principles Covey advocates.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the philosophy of ‘Begin with the End in Mind’ encourages us to thoughtfully consider how our current actions will shape our future outcomes. It’s not merely about staying informed but about being strategically equipped to make decisions that align with our ultimate aspirations.
Whether we’re buying, selling, providing guidance, or appraising, the insights we glean from a diligent analysis of market trends are priceless. They lay down a framework for informed action, grounded in deep understanding, which empowers us to navigate the real estate landscape with both foresight and the flexibility to adapt to ever-changing conditions.
By Conrad Meertins Jr
by Conrad Meertins | Jan 8, 2024 | Market Trends
The Power of Proactivity in Real Estate
Have you ever watched a chess master at work? Each move is made not just for the present but for the unfolding game. If she is going to win, one key will be mastering the habit of proactivity.
It’s little wonder that this habit is the first one mentioned of Stephen Covey’s Seven Habits of Highly Effective People. Will Real Estate professionals need this quality for 2024? Absolutely.
As Covey mentioned, exemplifying this habit means that we give ourselves space between stimulus and response and claim our control. In this article I’ll be reviewing activity from the first week of January with the goal of helping you to be proactive in the real estate game.
Current Market Pulse: A Snapshot of Early January 1/1/24 – 1/7/24
Is Our Market Bursting with Options?
As we stepped into January, we saw 1,222 homes for sale here in Louisville, KY. This could mean lots of choices for buyers. But proactive real estate professionals know there’s a need to look a bit closer.
Only a small slice of homes are actually getting offers (4.4%) and even fewer are being sold (2.8%). Could some homes be priced too high? Or is something else making buyers hesitate?
Something we can’t get away from is the fact that interest rates are between 6.62% and 7.20% for most home loans (depending on where you shop). Even though these rates have dipped a tiny bit, they’re still pretty high compared to the past, which could make buyers slow down and think twice as they contemplate that higher monthly payment.
Plus, let’s be real, moving when it’s cold and right after spending time off with family isn’t a fun idea for many people. That can definitely make for a slower market.
So what’s the real deal in Louisville, with our market (1222 active listings) in this chilly season?
We might have:
- a vibrant market with lots of options for buyers.
- a market that’s taking a breather with homes not selling as fast as expected. Or
- overpriced listings.
To really understand what’s happening, we’re going to take a closer look at the homes that did sell during the first seven days of January 2024 and check out the Cumulative Days on Market of homes that are still active.
What Week 1 -January 2024 Sales Reveal
Peering into the recent sales gives us a clearer picture of our winter market. In January’s first week, out of 1,222 homes up for grabs, 39 made it across the finish line. But how fast?
The pie chart lays it out: Over half of the homes sold (56.4%) in 30 days or less. This brisk movement indicates a segment of our market is priced just right—homes that buyers are snatching up quickly, likely because they hit that sweet spot of value and appeal.
Then there’s the 15.4% that closed in 31-60 days and another 15.4% in 61-90 days.
These homes took their time, but not too much time. It suggests a balanced approach—perhaps a minor price negotiation here or a little patience there paid off.
The smaller slices—10% selling in 91-120 days and a sliver at 2.6% beyond 120 days—tell us some stories took longer to tell.
These could be homes where initial expectations needed adjusting, whether due to price, property quirks, or just finding the right buyer who sees a diamond where others didn’t.
While this data strengthens our understanding of the Louisville market timings, a deeper layer awaits our attention – the interplay between the final Sale Price and the Original List Price (SP/OLP). This ratio sheds light about the art of pricing accurately from the onset.
January Sales with a focus on Sold Price/List Price Ratios
The Average Sold Price to Original List Price (SP/OLP) ratio tells us how the final sale price compares to the initial asking price.
0-30 Days: Homes in Louisville, KY that sold within a month almost met their asking price, with an SP/OLP of 99.22%, indicating they were likely priced right from the start.
31-60 Days: The drop to an SP/OLP of 94.92% for homes sold in one to two months hints at negotiations, perhaps due to ambitious initial pricing.
61-90 Days: A further dip in SP/OLP to 92.13% for sales in two to three months suggests either significant price drops or shifts in market trends.
Armed with stats like these you can advise clients on pricing their homes to sell within a desired timeframe, considering market dynamics.
But what about homes that are still on the market? How long have they been sitting, and what does their waiting time tell us?
To answer that question, let’s pivot to a Cumulative DOM analysis for active listings. In doing so, we’ll uncover another layer of the market’s story.
Average and Median Days on Market – for Homes that Have Not Sold
The canvas of our January market, with 1,222 active listings, is rich with detail when viewed through the lens of CDOM. The average CDOM across all MLS Areas is currently between 66 and 109 days.
The median CDOM, which ranges from 58 to 79 days across the areas, is a more balanced lens since the median is less affected by outliers. It indicates that over half of the homes have been listed for about two months or less. This is a more typical timeframe in a balanced market.
These insights are crucial for managing expectations on both ends—sellers can gauge how long it might take to sell their home, and buyers can spot opportunities for negotiating better prices on listings that have been on the market longer.
As we wrap up our review of January’s first week, remember that these statistics do more than just inform—they enable you to lead in the marketplace with authority and foresight.
But in order for that to happen you have to continue to pause after your exposure to data like this. Think about how it relates to a current or upcoming listing, and then take the appropriate response that indicates purposeful control – That’s being proactive!
Next week, we’ll delve into the second of Covey’s habits, ‘Begin with the End in Mind’, to further refine our strategic approach to real estate success.
Have a great week.
Conrad Meertins Jr.
by Conrad Meertins | Jan 1, 2024 | Valuation
In the world of home appraisals, the clash between emotional value and market reality often emerges, a theme vividly illustrated in a recent case I encountered.
About five months ago, a soft-spoken man sought my expertise for an unbiased appraisal of his father’s home. Caught in a $50,000 valuation disagreement with his brother, they turned to me to settle their differences.
This case unravels not just the complexities of property appraisal but also the emotional ties we associate with our homes. As we delve into this intriguing case study, we’ll explore how market data often challenges our expectations, teaching us valuable lessons in property valuation.
Background of the Property
Nestled in a neighborhood in Louisville, where property values are between $278,000 and $550,000, with a median sale price at $375,000, the subject property presented a unique appraisal challenge. This home, larger than most in its neighborhood at over 1800 square feet, had features both appealing and dated.
The basement, equipped with one kitchen, could be seen as a versatile addition, offering potential for rental income or extended family living. A second part of the property, transformed into a modern accessory unit, added a contemporary touch.
However, the main level told a different story. Despite being well-maintained, it was a time capsule of the 1970s, with its disco-era wallpaper and outdated fixtures. This blend of the old and the new, where the majority of the living space still echoed the past, demanded careful consideration in its valuation.
Appraisal Process and Challenges
As an appraiser, my process involved a meticulous valuation of the property’s attributes: its prime location, the large living area, and the modern updates on the second level.
However, the challenges were evident. The dated condition of the main level, representing 70% of the living space, significantly impacted the overall valuation.
Despite the modern renovations and unique features like an additional kitchen, the property’s true market value couldn’t solely hinge on its updates. It required a holistic view, considering both its strengths and weaknesses.
This comprehensive analysis led to a valuation of $325,000, a figure grounded in market realities yet distant from the clients’ expectations.
Client Reaction and Market Reality
When the appraisal valued the home at $325,000, the clients were in disbelief, struggling to reconcile this figure with their higher expectations of $400,000 to $500,000. Their emotional attachment to the home clouded their acceptance of the market-based valuation, particularly the impact of its outdated main living area.
Despite a detailed explanation during a follow-up meeting, their conviction in the home’s higher worth remained unshaken. Boldly, they listed the property for $405,000, but the market’s response was unequivocal.
After languishing for 100 days without interest, they had to reduce the price by over $30,000. But, there was still no interest. This stark contrast between expectation and reality highlighted a crucial lesson: emotional value doesn’t always align with market value.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the case of the “High Hopes Appraisal” serves as a powerful reminder of the complex interplay between emotional value and market reality in property valuation.
It underscores that while sentimental attachment can significantly inflate a homeowner’s valuation expectations, the true worth of a property is ultimately determined by the open market, influenced by current trends and objective data.
This case study highlights the importance of approaching property appraisals with an open mind, valuing the expertise of professionals, and understanding that market data often tells a story different from our personal narratives. It’s a testament to the fact that in real estate, numbers and market dynamics hold the final say, not our emotional connections to the property.
If you’re navigating the intricate process of property valuation and seeking an unbiased, market-informed perspective, reach out for professional appraisal services.
Let’s ensure your property decisions are grounded in reality and informed by expert insights. Remember, in the real estate market, it’s the hard data that ultimately shapes our success.
– Conrad Meertins, Jr.
Just as a captain charts a course by the stars, real estate market trends serve as our celestial guides, helping us navigate towards maximum profitability.
The real estate market is as dynamic as the seasons, changing in response to a multitude of economic and societal factors.
